That Iranian election

It now seems clear that Ahmadi-Nejad, so far from having been weakened by the transparent illegitimacy of his reelection, has won some kind of power struggle in the only arena that counts, which is to say the upper layers of the Iranian elites. He is effectively daring the clerics to question the validity of the election, and it does not look like they are going to; indeed, they have already acquiesced.

The problem is that Ahmadi-Nejad is what we in the west would call a raving lunatic. From his previous utterances, he seems to think that he is the Hidden Imam of Shia belief, or possibly the Imam's herald. It looks to me like he has now decided that his mission is so important that he cannot allow it to be derailed by anything so irrelevant as the will of the people he ostensibly leads. This makes me wonder if perhaps the nuclear program is further advanced than we thought.

Iran's current religious leaders have previously been documented as saying that they care not if their country is reduced to a nuclear wasteland, so long as it hastens the eventual triumph of Islam over the rest of the world. That Ahmadi-Nejad makes such people look like moderates is clearly a cause for extreme alarm. In this context I quote a Slashdot posting where one worried Iranian says "People, we need your urgent help in Iran. We are under attack by the government. They stole the election. And now are arresting everybody... Please tell us what to do or we are going to die in a nuclear war between Iran and US".

If it does come down to Iran lobbing nuclear weapons around, then they will surely be spoilt for choice. Heretical Sunnis next door in Pakistan? Americans in Iraq? Israel? (In which case, look for an immediate flowering of mushroom clouds over capitals throughout the Middle East.) I wonder at what point those European elites who have done their best to sabotage sanctions over the years will realise that Europe is a lot closer to Iranian launch pads than America is?

Still, before that can happen, we can expect to see a rapid and brutal putting down of all opposition. I don't think this regime will be gentle, I think there will be a lot of blood.