Wednesday 30 May 2012

No wonder Japan has had a lost decade

Plowing thorugh posts on Zero Hedge, my eye alights on a telling phrase in this one:
Bruce Kovner expressed the idea more eloquently when he said, “I have the ability to imagine configurations of the world different from today and really believe it can happen. I can imagine...that the dollar can fall to 100 yen”. I am sure you are nodding in agreement, except Bruce was saying this when the USDJPY was well over 200, not today's rate of 80!
I'm used to thinking of quantitative easing — not the "official" kind that we've had twice so far in the U.S., but the unofficial, continuous overproduction of money throughout the financial system, resulting in huge oceans of dollars washing up on foreign shores — as largely an attempt to inflate away debts (and future debts too, of course), but that phrase puts it in context. Wikipedia tells us more: from 239 yen/dollar in 1985 to just under 80 today, that represents an enormous currency strengthening for Japanese exporters vis-à-vis their principal export market.

I've been mentally dismissing rumours that the U.S. is attempting to do the same thing to the renminbi, but perhaps they are.

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