"No! No! ... " -- quick, what comes next?

European leaders who attempt to press on with ratification of the EU Constitution will be rewarded with further noes.

When I was growing up, at a time when governments with tiny majorities and even minorities were common, there used to be an understanding that any party that attempted to improve their showing by forcing the British people to go to the polls for a second time would likely be punished for its temerity. I do not think that Mr Blair will be so foolish as to insist: achieving a British "Yes" on this subject would have required quite some effort in the best of circumstances; add to that the momentum of the two preceding noes, the disheartening of the ayes, and the resentment that would surely arise when people felt that they were being asked to support a lost cause, and a "No" answer would be a sure thing. Blair and Brown both understand that, and so a British referendum is unlikely in the extreme.

What worries me more is that there are voices in Europe calling for the "ratification process" to proceed. One must firstly ask if they are not deluded to think that there exists, anymore, any such "ratification process" that can be concluded. Secondly, one must wonder what they imagine the purpose of such a procedure might be. If it's simply to tally up the numbers of states, and millions of voters, who said yes or no, then that might be fair in a way, but would doubtless be seen as a bureaucratic nonsense and a waste of time and money. Perhaps though they think that most or all of the subsequent decisions will be yes, and that the French and Dutch can be either shamed or bullied or simply wearied into changing their minds, in a rerun of what happened with the Irish last time. If so, they are in for a nasty shock. The current status is as follows:

Decided			Undecided
Country	Result	Referendum	Country	Referendum
Austria	Yes		Belgium	Consultative
Germany	Yes		Cyprus
Greece	Yes		Czech Republic	Binding
Hungary	Yes		Denmark	Binding
Italy	Yes		Estonia
Latvia	Yes		Finland
Lithuania	Yes		Ireland	Binding
Slovakia	Yes		Luxembourg	Consultative
Slovenia	Yes		Malta
Spain	Yes	Consultative	Poland	Binding
France	No	Binding	Portugal	Binding
Netherlands	No	Consultative	Sweden
			United Kingdom	Consultative

It's easy to see from this both the reason for their terminology, and the shocks that may await them. Firstly, the ratifications so far have, with the semi exception of Spain, been parliamentary. It's reasonable to expect that a government that has agreed to the treaty in principle, and that commands a majority in its own national assembly, will be able to complete ratification. Hence the use of the word "process" with its image of a conveyor-belt of countries trussed up neatly like so many chickens, all falling into a basket marked "Yes". But a glance at the countries yet to decide shows a great many referenda coming up, and most of those binding. Of those both Denmark and Poland are thought likely to vote no. Ireland has voted no in a past European referendum and may do so again. It looks to me like anything up to a third of the European population — and the majority of those actually given an opportunity to vote — may end up saying no.

Today Graham Watson, Liberal leader in the EU Parliament, quipped, “The French slapped the left cheek of Europe, the Dutch have now slapped the right.” Those who wish to prolong this exercise risk ending up with very red faces indeed.